By Carl Kaminski and Bruce Wilkinson, Toffler Associates, Manchester,
Mass.
Weapons of mass destruction were instrumental
in the conquest of America by European settlers. An unknown and
unforeseen biological weapon—the germ—ravaged the Native American
population. For example, within 40 years of Jamestown's founding, the
Powhatan tribe of approximately 20,000 was reduced to less than 3,000 by
smallpox and measles. Biological weapons capable of the same level of
decimation are among the greatest threats to homeland security today.
And just as the weapons that leveled civilizations in the 17th century
arrived by boat, so may the weapons of today.
Fortunately, Americans are aware of the threat posed by biological
agents, and they appreciate the fact a biological attack could come from
the sea, over land or in the air. U.S. leaders know how vulnerable the
country is to the threat of ship-borne terrorism. But how can the United
States prevent terrorists from taking advantage of its distributed,
decentralized port system?
An Elusive Threat
The
United States lacks an integrated system to track ships continuously
around the world, or even in U.S. waters. The country has the ability to
detect and track ships that emit electronic signals (e.g., radar or
radio transmissions), but the tracking infrastructure is too rudimentary
to permit continuity of coverage. Moreover, so many resources must be
used to track low-risk ships that the total awareness necessary for the
truly dangerous vessels to be observed is impossible under current
trends.
In February 2003, for example, the Scandinavian Shipping Gazette
reported that American and British intelligence services were tracking
three bulk carriers suspected to have mass-destruction weapons onboard.
The three vessels of approximately 35,000–40,000 Dead Weight Tons (DWT)
were said to have left Arabian ports shortly after the first United
Nations team of inspectors arrived in Iraq. The vessels—flying the flags
of three different nations and chartered by an Egyptian broker—stayed in
the Indian Ocean and kept radio silence. At the time of this writing,
their whereabouts and activities remain unknown; they have effectively
disappeared.
In late 2002, U.S. intelligence officials identified at least 15 cargo
freighters around the world that they believe to be controlled by Al
Qaeda. These freighters could be used to ferry terrorist operatives,
bombs, money or commodities over the high seas. Moreover, they could be
used to commit terrorist attacks on ports anywhere in the world.
Although any such attack would put at risk the lives of American
civilians and servicemen and women, it would also put at risk the health
of the world economy upon which U.S. growth depends.
Magnitude of the Problem
Traditionally, maritime security meant navies battling on the high seas
over lucrative shipping lanes. The Spanish crown used to route all New
World gold shipments through the Port of Havana, Cuba, to be able to
provide the compiled shipment to Spain with enough security. Havana was
sacked repeatedly; on the last occasion Spain had to give the English
Florida in exchange for its main shipping hub. Similar stories could be
told of other famous shipping lanes, such as the Straits of Malacca or
parts of the Mediterranean.
Today’s enormous container and bulk ships have changed maritime security
forever. Increasing amounts of world trade—in real and relative
terms—flow through the same largest ports, “hubs” in the world trade
network. Given that 90 percent of the world’s cargo moves in containers,
and, to pick one example, 95 percent of U.S. non-North American foreign
trade arrives by ship, the shipping network is crucial. The United
States must do all it can to secure the network.
The sheer number of vessels and shipments could overwhelm any monitoring
attempt. A recent study by the Department of Naval Architecture and
Ocean Engineering at the U.S. Naval Academy estimated the number of U.S.
port calls in 2000 at 105,000 (or approximately 8,200 ships), and the
number is predicted to grow to approximately 163,000 port calls in 2010.
In 2001, approximately 5,400 ships carrying multinational crews and
cargoes from around the globe made more than 60,000 U.S. port calls,
according to the General Accounting Office.
According to the Brookings Institution, it would cost the U.S. Custom
and Border Protection Agency $50 billion per year to inspect all
incoming containers. The U.S. lands 6 million cargo containers per year,
including transshipments (containers en route to another overseas port).
About 250 million containers are shipped annually worldwide. Currently,
the Border Protection Agency’s annual budget is a meager $2.3 billion.
It physically searches only 2 percent of the landed containers, even
though disaster can be transported in just one container. However, the
inspection of all incoming containers isn’t the ideal or correct
approach.
Finding and Tracking the Terrorists
An
alternative to 100 percent inspections is tracking suspect ships and
cargoes. The Container Security Initiative (CSI) is beginning to do this
by inspecting container cargoes before they are loaded in foreign ports,
and sealing them before they depart to the United States. But much more
security could come from ensuring cargoes and ships are complying with
their itineraries and manifests, and tracking is the only way to ensure
this.
Finding and tracking merchant ships requires intense effort because of
the vast area that must be searched (the world’s oceans—or even a small
part of one ocean). Further assets are required to investigate the ship
(by airborne observation or sea-borne interception) or to track it to
its destination.
If the United States is funding the solution, it can reduce the size of
the problem by limiting inspections and tracking to those ships expected
to visit U.S. ports. This process began shortly after Sept. 11, 2001,
when the Coast Guard established new rules for medium- and large-size
ships. Now, 96 hours before reaching a U.S. port, merchant ships must
provide data about their cargo, the names and passport numbers of the
crew, the ship's corporate details and recent port calls. This
information is merged with other data, such as satellite photos of ships
or ports, and is entered into the government’s Automated Targeting
System, which uses artificial intelligence to flag suspicious containers
based on a combination of country of origin, weight discrepancies and
names linked to terrorists groups. In addition, because shipping lanes
to major American ports are well established, various surveillance
assets can monitor shipping activity and look for anomalies.
One passive method of solving the problem recently implemented by the
U.S. Coast Guard is a harbor surveillance system. The Vessel Traffic
Service (VTS) surveillance system, made by Lockheed Martin Inc., is
being deployed in New York harbor and the Texas ports of Houston,
Galveston and Port Arthur. Originally designed to support the Coast
Guard's maritime-safety and environmental-protection missions, the VTS
will increase homeland security by tracking and identifying all ships
entering a port. Using internationally approved Automatic Identification
System (AIS) transponder technology, a VTS allows the Coast Guard to
easily identify ships. Thus, less effort and funds need to be expended
on safe ships, leaving more to be concentrated on suspect ships.
Maximizing Space-Based Assets
Such
initiatives are only first steps in what must be a concerted effort to
stop terrorism using seas and ports to threaten innocent people and
national security. The United States is investigating its options,
including the ability to augment these protective measures by employing
space-based infrared (IR) tracking systems to monitor ships at sea. The
volume of merchant traffic is too great given current resources to track
on a global basis, especially considering that only a handful of ships
would pose a threat. However, given the devastation such an attack could
have on U.S. national security, the country is considering the
feasibility of integrating IR detection systems with other ocean
surveillance systems—at least in the 3.4 million square miles of
Exclusive Economic Zones currently serviced by the U.S. Coast Guard.
Infrared sensors looking for heat signatures against the background of
the cold ocean could be an effective addition to the array of
technologies employed to enhance maritime situational awareness. Given
that shipping lanes to major U.S. ports are well established and the
U.S. Coast Guard now requires 96-hour port entry notification, an
operational concept that uses space-based IR sensors to help detect
shipping anomalies would enable the timely cueing of other more tactical
assets (e.g., patrol craft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) that could
identify and investigate suspicious activity. The concept could be
expanded in the future to incorporate space-based radar and provide
all-weather detection and tracking capability.
This kind of detection capability could be used by agencies responsible
for homeland security to assist in verifying anticipated shipping
activity based on new reporting requirements while alerting authorities
to the presence of shipping that hasn’t been reported. This information
could be integrated with other sources of ship locating and tracking
data to allow the effective allocation of other patrol assets to
investigate anomalous contacts at sea, in coastal waterways and
offshore.
Finally, measures that ferret out illegal shipping activity have
far-reaching benefits. Terrorism isn’t the only activity that will
suffer from closer monitoring of container and bulk shipping traffic:
arms smuggling, immigrant smuggling and narcotics smuggling also will
feel the sting.
Although steps currently being taken will begin to close certain ports
to terrorism, the seas remain far from secure—and therefore the United
States and world remain insecure. Cost prohibits inspecting all
containers entering U.S. ports. However, using space-based capabilities
as a pillar in an integrated system to monitor suspect ships, crews and
cargoes, and ensure continuity of coverage, would increase U.S. homeland
security and security in all of the world’s ports.
